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Longest LCD-TV Downturn to Come: DisplaySearch V.P.

Post Time:Nov 21,2008Classify:Industry NewsView:381

Worldwide shipments of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs in the fourth quarter might be lower than that in the third quarter-contrasting to past years-due to the serious global financial storm, according to David Hsieh, president of DisplaySearch Taiwan Office and vice president, DisplaySearch Greater China

Hsieh estimated that the global LCD TV shipments would be about 100 million to 102 million units this year, while the total LCD TV revenue in 2009 might be lower than this year due to lower-than-expected shipment growth. That means, he added, the LCD-TV line that has been maintaining a high growth trend in the past yeas would face a decline for the first time in 2009 to cause a record-long downturn.

DisplaySearch reduced its third-quarter and fourth-quarter forecasts of LCD TV shipments each by five million units.

The research firm predicted that the fourth-quarter LCD TV shipments would be lower-than-third-quarter shipments. For example, some 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) retail chain-stores in the United States saw much fewer consumers, while the price of a 32-inch, first-class-brand TV model has plunged to only US$499 but still could not stimulate purchase willingness.

The vice president also estimated that the panel supply excess would not abate till the end of the first quarter of 2009, possibly setting up the longest downturn of 11 or 12 months in the history of LCD industry, compared to the last record of about 10 months.

Hsieh, however, deemed that the overall industry is not abysmal because a possible supply shortage is expected in the second half of 2009 after makers` continuous production reduction.


Global LCD TV Shipment Forecasts (2008, 2009)

Current Forecast

2008

(million units)

2009

(million units)

YoY

(2008 vs. 2007)

YoY

(2009 vs. 2008)

Best Scenario

102.8

121.5

30%

18%

Worst Scenario

100.8

110.0

27%

9%

Source: DisplaySearch, November 2008.

 

Source: CENS.comAuthor: shangyi

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