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Research and Markets: a Report on Windows, Doors & Conservatories in New Housing

Post Time:Jan 12,2009Classify:Industry NewsView:557

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Market Size data on windows, entrance and patio doors and conservatories in new housing in Great Britain.

The new build market set for a difficult period as indicators move in wrong direction

According to the latest annual report* from Palmer Market Research, the market in new build for windows, doors and conservatories shows that a severe contraction is occurring in 2008 and although the rate of decline will ease in 2009, a general recovery will only be likely in 2010. The forecast is more pessimistic than the last report in 2007 because of the severity of what appears to be an oncoming recession due to a number of factors including the Credit Crunch, higher than expected inflation and fear of job losses.

New build has suffered particularly in 2008 but the decline was already evident last year when housing starts in Great Britain dropped by 5.3% to 204,000, the lowest since 2003. Unfortunately for the building sector, the deterioration occurred in both the private and social sectors with a fall of 5.4% (182,100) and 5% (22,000) respectively. The forecast for 2008 is even more depressing. Palmer predicts the private sector will suffer a 35% decline in starts in 2008, largely due to poor performance in the housing property market.

The Credit Crunch and substantial monthly drops in house prices, have resulted in the majority of leading house builders postponing work in many existing sites and deferring commencement of new ones. As a result, Palmer believes there will be another 5% drop in 2009. The market should recover marginally by 3% in 2010 but the report notes that even by 2012, the number of starts will be 20% lower than they were in 2007.

The reason for the social sector not providing a possible route for expansion is that more than 50% of new build is linked directly with Section 106 agreements on 'affordable housing'. Palmer predicts an 8% decline in 2008, a static market in 2009, although there will be a 10% increase in 2010 and 2011. However, this will represent only 26,400 starts in 2012, significantly below the government target of over 47,000.

The knock on effects for the UK glazing industry are only too evident. Palmer has a stark forecast for the window market. It is set to suffer a huge drop of 32% in 2008, which is a direct reflection of housing starts, but then to perform marginally better as the percentage of starts in houses rises at the expense of flats. A continued drop of 3% to 0.96 million frames is predicted for 2009, which is a dramatic indication of performance as this would be the lowest level achieved since 1946. It will only be by 2010 that growth will return, but that will only be by 5%.

While it still has a dominant share of approximately 66% of the overall market, PVC-U is expected to suffer a substantial fall of 37% in 2008, followed by a slight recovery of 2% next year. Aluminium has enjoyed a resurgence in recent years, mainly due to the growth in city centre apartment blocks, but it will have a setback in 2008, dropping by 19%, followed by 18% in 2009. The last major window material - wood - will have a bad period in the new build sector as well with a drop of 24% this year and zero growth in 2009.

As far as the doors sector is concerned, the report sees reversals in almost all the sectors, i.e. PVC-U, steel, aluminium and wood (although composites might escape in 2008-9), before recovery in 2010. Overall, the entrance door market is set to decline by 22% in 2008, and drop by another 12% next year. This means the market will be at a record low of 220,000. The same sharp fall will also be experienced in the patio, sliding door and hinged door sectors.

Still having a relatively modest share of the market, conservatories had a good year in new build housing in 2007 when growth of nearly 33% to 5,200 was experienced; the highest number since 2003. Installed value grew from £19 million to £26 million. The expansion was a little lopsided as 62% of the market was in the South of England. Palmer predicts a 12% decline in 2008 and a further 3% fall in 2009 before growth resumes in 2010. However, it will not be until 2011 that the market is greater than in 2007.

The author of this report is available to provide a personal presentation of its results at an extra cost. If you wish to receive this presentation, please enquire after purchase.

Key Topics Covered:

--  Market by Size of Housebuilder (Blue)

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Source: Research and MarketsAuthor: shangyi

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