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LCD glass substrate demand increases 26% in 2Q09, says DisplaySearch

Post Time:Jul 21,2009Classify:Industry NewsView:330

 

DisplaySearch: LCD glass substrate supply and demand, 2009 (k square meters)

 

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09(f)

4Q09(f)

Supply

17,024

19,074

20,549

21,000

Demand

15,098

18,958

19,603

19,225

Glut

11.3%

0.6%

4.6%

8.4%

Source: DisplaySearch, compiled by Digitimes, July 2009

DisplaySearch: Glass substrate market share by area, 1Q09

 

Corning

SCP

AGC

NEG

AvanStrate

China

36%

18%

15%

31%

0%

Japan

34%

0%

60%

5%

1%

Korea

0%

59%

11%

22%

7%

Singapore

0%

0%

0%

22%

78%

Taiwan

43%

0%

36%

16%

6%

Total

17%

35%

23%

19%

6%

Source: DisplaySearch, compiled by Digitimes, July 2009

Global LCD glass substrate demand increased to 18.56 million square meter per month in the second quarter, up 26% sequentially and much higher than the glass supply growth of 12% from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2009, according to DisplaySearch. This has created a tight supply situation and led TFT LCD makers to call for increased allocations from their glass sources for the second half of the year.

In the second quarter, the glass glut ratio (oversupply amount) is 0.6%, which is far below DisplaySearch's definition of balance point of 5-10% glut. Assuming glass companies continue to bring more capacity on line in the third quarter, supply is expected to grow at 8% sequentially; however, the glut ratio is still forecast to be below the balance point.

DisplaySearch estimates that glass tightness in the second quarter will continue in the third quarter as LCD panel makers are increasing capacity utilization and demanding more glass substrate from suppliers, but glass supply demand will reach a balance in the fourth quarter.

"The glass supply-demand balance in Taiwan has been different from Korea or Japan," according to Tadashi Uno, director of materials and components market research at DisplaySearch. "The economic crisis that hit in October 2008 impacted Taiwanese panel makers the most, due to currency differences and customer relationships. In the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, panel makers consumed glass inventory and reduced glass orders, especially Taiwanese panel makers, so glass makers stopped tanks to avoid losing money."

Uno continued, "Starting in the second quarter, panel makers began rapidly ramping up production, and are placing full capacity orders to glass makers. However, it takes 1-2 months to bring a stopped tank back to mass production, leading to glass substrate tightness."

The consolidated global market share of Corning and SCP (Samsung Corning Precision) was 52% in the first quarter of 2009, down from 55% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The three main Japanese glass substrate suppliers all gained share. AGC (Asahi Glass) had 23% share, up from 22% in the fourth quarter of 2008; NEG had 19%, up from 18% in the first quarter of 2009; and AvanStrate's share also increased, from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 6% in the first quarter of 2009.

Source: http://www.digitimes.com/Author: shangyi

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