AAMA conference offers initial market forecast

"We're starting to see some rebound in residential, but the news is not so good for the commercial market," reported Nick Limb, partner, Ducker Worldwide, Troy, Mich. He wasspeaking at the opening session of the American Architectural Manufacturers Association's 73rd Annual Conference at the JW Marriott, Desert Springs, Palm Desert, Calif., Feb. 14-17.Numerous issues are on the agenda here this week, including continued work on building information modeling standards for specifying commercial fenestration products and a green and sustainability specification.

Limb offered attendees a preliminary look at Ducker's findings as it prepares its biennial window, door and skylight market study for AAMA and Window & Door Manufacturers Association, Chicago, scheduled to be finished in May. Last year produced significant declines "between 20 and 25 percent" for most window and door products across both the residential and commercial markets, he said.

In the nonresidential market, much of the decline came in the second half of the year, and Ducker now expects it will be worse in 2010, Limb said.Overall, the nonresidential construction spending was down only 12 percent last year, but the commercial segment --which includes offices, hotels and retail -- was down much more, he said.

At this stage in its research, Ducker estimates nonresidential fenestration product sales were down about 25 percent in 2009, with another 30 percent decline predicted for 2010, Limb said."We think things will flatten in 2010, and it's going to take until 2012 to see growth again in this market."

The picture is better for residential windows, Limb said.Currently, Ducker estimates this market declined about 20 percent in 2009 to 38 million units.For 2010, it will increase about 15 percent, he said. New residential construction is expected to be up about 30 percent, which sounds like a large increase, but still translates into fairly low levels from a historic perspective, he said.Remodeling activity also is expected to see some increase.